It’s 4:45 am in Central Illinois right now. It’s 14 degrees wind chill, but I’m fuming inside as my personal PrizePick options are 1-3 this week. We haven’t had a 3-0 sweep all week and it drives me fucking bonkers. Alas, the sun will likely come up this morning and we’ve got an absolutely wonderful slate of games ahead of us.
Our boy James is repping the CBB DFS brand in Vegas for the Continental Tire Main Event, which features Baylor v. UVA and a fireball finisher in UCLA vs. ILL. Joe and I will be heading to the bar to watch the games as well, so feel free to shoot us a tweet tonight, assuming Twitter is still functioning by the end of the day. It’s going to be a great day of basketball and our content is going to be flamethrower hot. Trust the process Bucketheads. LFG!!
11/18/22
| Game | Time | Line | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| IU @ XAV | 5:00 | IU -3 | 143.5 |
| *OKST v. UCF | 6:00 | OKST -5.5 | 133.5 |
| *BAY v. UV | 6:00 | BAY -4.5 | 133 |
| *BC v. GMU | 6:45 | GMU -4 | 133.5 |
| UF @ FSU | 7:00 | UF -7 | 147 |
| VU @ MSU | 7:00 | MSU -7 | 132 |
| DPU @ STC | 8:15 | DPU -3.5 | 152.5 |
| *UCLA @ IL | 8:15 | UCLA -3 | 145.5 |
All line are from this morning courtesy of BetUS
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GUARDS WE LIKE
Kyle Lofton, UF (G, 7300) – Coming off a bad loss to Florida Atlantic, the Gators travel to Tallahassee to take on FSU who is coming off 3 bad losses. The fact that both teams need to get right means we lean on the stars. Castleton has the gaudy usage, shot share, and price tag, but Lofton is the #2 on this team and he posted 34 DK in 38 minutes last game. I expect another solid outing making he a solid cash play.
Bryce Thompson, OKST (G, 7100) – With an over/under south of 140, I’m not looking for a lot of exposure to this game. Thompson gets a price drop after a 2-9 shooting performance last time out, but the former 5-star still leads the team in shot share and minutes played. Avery Anderson III (G, 8300) will be the safest bet for the Cowboys this season, but given the $1200 savings Thompson is my preferred tourney option from the Pokes.
LJ Cryer, (G, 6800) – Contrasting styles in this matchup, as Baylor’s elite guards want to push pace and will fire from deep, while UVA wants to play as slow as possible and eliminate 3-point FGAs. While the freshman Keyonte George (G, 9200) has been sensational to date, this is a massive step up in weight class against an elite D. Adam Flagler (G, 8100) will get his, but hard to expect a huge payoff at his price point, right? That brings us to Cryer, who actually leads the team in shot share this season at 30%. He has some steal upside too, so taking price into account he’s my preferred Bear target tonight.
Jalen Hood-Schifino, IU (G, 6700) – If you want a high floor here is your guy. The do-it-all freshman isn’t a big-time scorer, but he can play 1-4 on the floor and is leading the team in minutes. Xavier Johnson (G, 8000) is the more proven commodity, and better scorer, but Xavier will be their toughest defensive test to date and I prefer a guy who can fill up the stat sheet.
Terrence Shannon Jr, IL (G, 6000) – Shannon will make his Illinois debut on a DK slate this season. Frankly, he’s priced low for what I expect will be a ton of usage. Currently he’s sitting at a 32% usage and 28% shot share on a 63% minute share. I don’t expect those numbers to go down this game and if it’s a close game, he may be on the court the entire time. He’s an explosive athlete that can do a bit of everything and currently 5thin the country at fouls drawn per 40.
Cam’Ron Fletcher, FSU (G, 5700) – The Seminoles are decimated by injuries right now, so Fletcher has been playing the 4. Offensively his game remains around the perimeter where he has a 30% shot share. I prefer him in DFS because of his rebounding upside over Darian Green Jr. (G, 7000), Caleb Mills (G, 6200) and Jalen Warley (G, 5000), but all three of these guys are priced appropriately and won’t leave the floor.
Adam Kunkel, XAV (G, 5600) – Colby Jones missed practice yesterday so we are not counting on him a day later against Indiana. Insert DFS darling from last season Adam Kunkel who burst on to the scene late last year when thrust into a starting role. The senior is $1500 more than last year’s price, but scored 21 points in 33 minutes with Jones out last game.
Brandin Podziemski, STC (G, 5300) – We thought we’d be writing up Podz as a member of the Illini this year, but the southpaw took his talents out west and is lighting it up for Santa Clara. The former 4-star prospect has two 57+ DK games this year (of 3). Yes, you read that correctly. If 100% ownership could ever happen, it should be tonight.
Jaylen Clark, UCLA (G, 5300) – The competition ramps up significantly tonight, but Clark has been sensational so far this season, shooting the cover off the ball (54% 3P). His 23% shot share does give me a little pause, but he can get boards and steals to help offset that. Illinois has been sloppy through 3 games, giving up a 10% steal rate to opposing Ds, so definite upside there. He’s still at a very attractive price point, so I would expect high ownership.
Amari Bailey, UCLA (G, 5000) – Tough to predict how this game will unfold as neither team has faced a top #150 KenPom team yet. Jaquez (G/F, 7500) will likely see a lot of Terrence Shannon, which could limit his production. In addition, Illinois’s press and 1 through 5 switching could disrupt Campbell (G, 6500) making him less of a facilitator. 5-star freshman Bailey has yet to snap out on this talented and experienced roster, but that could change tonight. Illinois has had some issues stopping athletic guards that can create their own shots. With the focus on shutting down the vets, it could open up scoring opportunities for the budding star.
RJ Melendez, IL (G, 4900) – Melendez has struggled to find his role on this team so far this season. He was expected to make a Keegan Murray type of jump in the off-season, but as Illinois added more and more talent, that projection became a bit murky. Melendez is long, athletic, and can shoot it well from deep, in spite of starting the season ice cold (18% 3P). He’s certainly more of a GPP option but also someone that can take a game over. The same can be said about Baylor transfer Mayer (G/F, 4800). He’s struggled mightily this season, adjusting to the new role and play style, but he’s a proven guy who has his best games when the lights are brightest.
Carlos Stewart, STC (G, 4700) – Second in usage and shot share to Podz above. Had a rough game at Utah State, but over 28 DK in the two game prior. Santa Clara played at the 26th fastest tempo a year ago and are 5th in tempo through three games this year.
FORWARDS WE LIKE
Colin Castleton, UF (F, 10,100) – This isn’t your older brother’s FSU team. The options for guarding the senior 7-foot AA candidate are a 6-10 freshman, or a 6-7 offensively minded forward who has one block on the season. Colin should feast in this matchup. 10.1k is absurd but if you have the money at the end of your build, he’s getting 45 DK minimum.
Trayce Jackson-Davis, IU (F, 9500) – Game log lookers will probably pass on TJD tonight, as he has only played 36 minutes in two games. Both were blowout wins by the Hoosiers, but tonight figures to be a tighter match-up, meaning more playing time. TJD has 64.3 DK points this year, that is 1.79 fantasy points per minute. If he gets 32 minutes tonight (last year’s average) he’ll go for 57 DK at this pace. Yes, X is tougher, but TJD is good. #MathThenFacts
Eric Dixon, VU (F, 8800) – DK has had some trouble pricing him this season and he’s still on the high side right now. That said, he’s been fairly consistent through three games and is the alpha for this version of the Wildcats, rocking a 32% usage and 37% shot share. Big disclaimer here though, some rumors floating around Cam Whitmore (F, 9800) might make his debut tonight. He’s a consensus future lottery pick and athletic freak. While I wouldn’t pay $9800 sight unseen, he would likely eat off Dixon’s plate which might me look elsewhere. Also worth noting that Whitmore’s return would mean Longino (G, 4800) would resume a backup role. Keep an eye on Twitter closer to game time.
Zach Freemantle, XAV (7600) – As if I (Joe) wouldn’t write him up… come on… good chance he is my PrizePicks play too. Bias aside I’ll try to make a numeric pitch – 28.8, 38.8, 51.8. Those are the three DK games so far. The last one being a 15-13-10 triple double on Tuesday without Jones (28% usage), who is expected to be out again tonight. Jack Nunge (F, 8000) is also a very good play tonight, but he’ll likely have his hands full with TJD.
Josh Oduro, GMU (F, 7000) – Oduro is a pretty safe option tonight against a 218th ranked effective FG% defense that just lost to Maine. He can fill up the stat sheet and get to the line, so if you are looking to lock in a 4x+ option tonight, Oduro rules. If you are looking for more boom or bust upside, former Duck and Vol Victor Bailey, Jr. (G, 4900) is your man. He’s got 28% shot share on the season, including double digit FGAs every game. BC is getting shredded by 3s this season; 27th highest distribution of points allowed from 3 this season. Finally, Ronald Polite (G, 3900) runs the point for the Patriots and while he’s not a big usage guy, he’s playing 28 minutes per game and averages almost 5x at this price point. Not a bad cheap option for those stars and scrubs lineups tonight.
TJ Bickerstaff, BC (F, 6600) – The Eagles are a 3-man show right now with Makai Ashton-Langford (G, 7500), Jaeden Zackery (G, 7000), and Bickerstaff. Zackery is playing the most minutes and has double digit shot attempts in every game while MAL is leading the team in shot share and has at least 2 steals in every game. Both guards are viable and I’d lean the upside of Zackery, but if forced to play a Boston College option tonight it would be Bickerstaff. He’s averaging a double-double and BC is running the offense through him (27% possession rate). He was Brickerstaff last game (1-7 from the field), but his rebounding and ancillary production give him the highest floor of the trio. Be sure to check Quentin Post’s status before tip, as he would eat into Bickerstaff’s minutes if available.
Joey Hauser, MSU (F, 6400) – Nova won’t give Michigan St a ton of opportunities to score points, as they currently sit at #350 in adjusted tempo. Overall Sparty players are priced well, so plenty of good cash options such as Hoggard (G, 6100) and Hall (F, 5700). For GPP, I prefer Hauser though. He has been inconsistent already this season, dropping a complete turd against the Zags, but bounced back nicely against Kentucky, going 5.5x. Nova has been a little soft guarding the 3, so we could see Hauser’s patented pick n pop action on full display. At the G spot, Jaden Akins (G, 4000) is still priced well and playing great, so give him a look once again.
Javan Johnson, DPU (F, 6000) – Johnson is averaging 33 minutes, 19.3 points, and 8 rebounds per game this year through the first three. He now gets a game against Santa Clara, a team that wants to push pace, in the highest over/under on the slate. We love the price point here, so others will too. Expect high ownership since his top running mate, Umoja Gibson (G, 8500) is priced very high, as is Eral Penn (F, 8000). These three have been the entirety of DePaul’s attack. The rest of their options are GPP fliers only.
Keshawn Justice, STC (F, 5600) – Justice and Parker Braun (5000) play the most minutes in the Bronco front court. Neither of the seniors are overly offensively gifted, but Justice has the higher shot share and seems to be the more willing rebounder through three games. I think both are live lineup fillers tonight given the implied 82 point total for Santa Clara.
Mady Sissoko, MSU (F, 4900) – Every game he’s playing more and looking better and better. He’s had all the athletic tools but now evident he’s rounding out his skillset as well. Went 8x against Oscar in Sparty’s dramatic OT win. Only a small $900 price bump so still very playable and obviously has some massive GPP pop, even in a tougher matchup against a slow-tempo Nova team.
Kadin Shedrick, UVA (F, 4700) – Shedrick is the best priced option in this game, averaging over 5x per game on the young season. He’s a really strong rebounder with block and steal upside, so he’ll just need to avoid foul trouble tonight. Beyond that, you are looking at a bunch of lower upside options. Gardner (F, 6300) averaged 15 and 6 last season, but with Vander Plas and the freshman Dunn emerging, I’m worried about his minutes. Beekman (G, 6800) has the highest upside of the guards while Kiheii Clark (G, 6200) has been playing college basketball for 12 years now. Personally, I’d rather try to find some heat from the higher scoring games than try to pick from a bunch of $6k options in a game featuring two elite defenses.
Miller Kopp, IU (F, 4600) – Miller is shooting 75% from 3 this year (6/8) in two games. He has a nice price point for a starter on a team projected to score 70+. We like Trey Galloway (G, 4000) as well. The pair will split time at the 3 and make for contrarian GPP options.
Cameron Corhen, FSU (F, 4500) – Corhen is a freshman, who is essentially the only true post in the active FSU rotation. He’s played 34+ minutes in each of his last two and while production hasn’t been great you aren’t going to find a cheaper forward who will see the floor this much. He also has to guard AA candidate Colin Castleton, the slates price king making this a clear boom or bust GPP play tonight.
CJ Walker, UCF (F, 4300) – I’m not overly interested in the higher priced Knights tonight against a pretty solid Ok State D. Walker is working his way back from an injury, but saw 16 minutes last game out. The former Duck was a projected starter and if he can see 25+ minutes tonight, he should hit value at this price. It’s a bit of a leap of faith since we aren’t exactly sure how his body is reacting to the additional minutes, but the talent is there. Michael Durr (F, 4400) is an experienced 7-footer whose size will be needed against Cisse and Boone down low. He’s hit 4x+ twice this season despite limited minutes, so a couple dart throws here if you are desperate.
PrizePicks
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Javan Johnson
OVER 22.5 Pts+Rebs+Asts
Santa Clara wants to play with pace and this game has the highest O/U on the slate. Johnson is one of three Blue Demons that play all the minutes and he has a 26% shot share. I like Johnson over 22.5 PRA.
– Joe
Ryan Dunn
UNDER 17.5 Pts+Rebs+Asts
I’m flat out pissed about how my PrizePicks have been this week. I’m winning tonight damn it!! Dunn debuted last game and played great, but Baylor’s D is a little different than mighty Monmouth and he’s splitting time with Gardner and Vander Plas. This number opened at 19.5, but I’m still good UNDER 17.5 PRA. If this one loses, I may have to hope RIP Twitter actually happens so I don’t have feel the shame from our Bucketheads.
– Byrd
BUCKETHEAD BONUS
EJ Harkless
OVER 22.1 Fantasy Score
Harkless has a 30% shot share for this Runnin’ Rebs team and is top 100 in steal rate. High Point gives up an 11% steal rate to opponents, and plays fairly up-tempo so should be lots of opportunity to come through in this one.
BUCKETHEAD PLAY OF THE DAY
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