Six more games make up our Holiday Tournament night slate this evening. Like yesterday we have another small $10 tourney with the $10K Big Jam and $2,000 being awarded to first.
The games start with Temple appearing on a DK slate for the 4th time this year. The DraftKings regulars have been up and down in those contests (1-2), but this is to be expected on a team that plays 6 sophomores regularly.
Creighton and Arkansas is a top 10 matchup that will tip off at 7:00 tonight, but the real fireworks are late in the Syracuse/St. John’s matchup as well as the San Diego State/Arizona tilt. The battle for New York has a 154.5 project total, while Maui round 2 contest is an eye popping 166.5 as of this afternoon’s lines.
Nice little six pack for our consumption all-in-all. Let’s dive in so we can win all the money!
11/22/22
| Game | Time | Line | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| RICH @ TEMP | 6:00 | TEMP -1 | 132 |
| NEV @ KSU | 6:15 | KSU -4 | 139.5 |
| CRE @ ARK | 7:00 | CRE -1.5 | 143.5 |
| LIB @ NW | 7:30 | NW -3 | 131 |
| SYR @ STJN | 8:15 | STJN -3.5 | 154.5 |
| SDSU @ ARIZ | 9:15 | ARIZ -1 | 166.5 |
Lines courtesy of BetUS
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GUARDS WE LIKE
Darius McGhee, LIB (G, 8200) – Old school Bucketheads likely remember McGhee from seasons past, he has shown up frequently in our write-ups, primarily due to his insane usage and shot share. This year McGhee is sharing the backcourt with another 5’9 guard, freshman Colin Porter (G, 4900), but still leads the nation in usage at 38% and second in shot share (behind former Illini, current Southern Utah Thunderbird, Tevin Jones) at 43%. Unsurprisingly, he’s gone back to back 5x the last two games on 20+ shot attempts. Northwestern has been stout defensively so far, so probably target McGhee more in cash games.
Baylor Scheierman, CRE (G, 7600) – Creighton is not deep, priced down, and paced up for this matchup. If you are looking at a 7k guy, I like Scheierman the most. Kaluma has the usage stats we look for, and Kalkbrenner can smash, but give me the wings shooting ability and rebounding chops. Kalkbrenner did roll his ankle a few times last night, so monitor his status as well.
Jospeh Girard III, SYR (G, 7400) – We weren’t as high on him last game, but he was able to eek out a 5x with 31 points on 24 shot attempts. We now get him $600 cheaper against the #3 ranked team in adjusted tempo, so seems like a great spot for him to cut loose once again. The talented and athletic Mintz (G, 8000) is looking like an extremely stable option thus far and ideal for cash games, although this could be a break-out game for him, so don’t shy away from GPP.
Boo Buie, NW (G, 7100) – Buie is off to a nice start this season. The senior guard is priced well and shooting 46% from 3 at 28% usage and shot share. Throw in a 37% assist rate, and you have someone you can target in cash and tournament play. This game could be a bit of a grinder, but he’s exceeded 4x at this price in 3 of 4 games and Liberty ranked #339 in 3P% defense, so let it rip. You can also look at Ty Berry for a bit cheaper, not shooting as well but could get hot. At the forward spot, Beran shooting 50% from 3 so far, both solid GPP options.
Anthony Black, ARK (G, 7000) – Broke out against Louisville with 42.3 DK. Hot shooting propelled the big day for the 5-star freshman. While back-to-back 40-burgers seems like a stretch, he feels safe for another 4x tonight. Ricky Council IV, (G, 7200) has also been very consistent this year for the Hogs.
Kenan Blackshear, NEV (G, 6700) – We love guys who can fill up the stat sheet in a variety of ways and that’s exactly what Blackshear has done to date. Let’s hope he got the 8 turnover game out of his system, but his versatility gives him a high floor despite an ugly matchup vs. KSU. Jarod Lucas (G, 6200) is basically the complete opposite of Blackshear, as Lucas is a scorer who offers little to no ancillary production. He does have 17+ points in 4 out of 5 games this season, so maybe he’ll stay hot from the field while falling into a couple other stats tonight.
Andre Curbelo, STJN (G, 6500) – The transfer portal is a strange monster indeed. The fiery Curbelo is back in limelight on Mike Anderson’s fast paced Red Storm offense, which so far, seems like a good fit. Curbelo and Alexander (G, 8100) should both have success moving the ball against the Cuse zone, which is dead last defensively giving up 71% A/FGM this season. In spite of the turnover issues, I prefer Curbelo with the savings in GPP, as he’s finding a more comfortable role as a scorer on this squad.
Matt Bradley, SDSU (G, 6000) – You knew this was coming Bucketheads. Bradley starting making some shots last night, but foul trouble held him in check. I’m sure he’s not popping on the excel monkey models given his current output, but excel doesn’t have a formula for “watches a shit-ton of college basketball.” A 30+ DK outburst from Bradley is coming and we want our Bucketheads on it when it happens. He’s too volatile for cash, but a nice boom or bust GPP option.
Ryan Nembhard, CRE (G, 6000) – Hasn’t had a breakout yet, but we love it when opposing PGs are paced up. Assists will be there and he seemed to find his shooting stroke last game. Give me Nembhard in cash builds.
Khalif Battle, TEMP (G, 5800) – As mentioned in the intro Temple has been on 4 DK slates in their 5 games. I may have written up Battle for all of them. He plays a ton of minutes and has a team high 32.8% shot rate. Outside of one stinker, he’s been above 25 DK in every other contest. He’s also taken 21 3PTA in his last two games.
Courtney Ramey, ARIZ (G, 5300) – I’m good with Kriisa and Larsson in tourneys, but Ramey might be a cash game lock with GPP upside as well. The former Longhorn is back and went 5x this price point in his Wildcat debut. The Wildcats play a pretty short bench and the over/under in this game is massive, so fire at will Bucketheads. You want all the late-night heat you can get.
Brody Peebles, LIB (G, 4100) – Even though we’re featuring multiple Flames here, definitely don’t go overboard on Liberty. That said, sophomore Peebles has been very productive backing up McGhee and on the wing. He has a 28% shot share and is shooting 63% from 3. 8x/4x/6x in three of last four games, so someone to consider as a flier option in GPP.
Andrew Gustavson, RICH (G, 4000) – Tyler Burton (F, 9000) is a great player, but a tough price to pay for a stud on a game with the lowest projected total on the slate. Isaiah Bigelow (F, 7100) has some intrigue with Matt Grace (F, 4000) expected to miss again, but if I am playing a Spider, it’ll probably be Gustavson, and that is mainly for the cap relief. He’s a lock to play 30 minutes and if he can improve on his 28.6% FG shooting, he could easily get value.
FORWARDS WE LIKE
David Jones, STJN (F, 9100) – Shame he’s priced this high, but the productive, former DePaul transfer has been extremely solid thus far, largely on his 35% shot share and ability to stuff the stat sheet. He should have all the tools to unlock the zone, including a 13% OR% and 38% 3P. Even at his high price, I love him in this matchup. He’s a cash game lock and should be a popular GPP play as well. However, I would probably target Joel Soriano (F, 7900) for a bit cheaper in tournaments. He’s a better rebounder and can give you some defensive stats as well.
Jess Edwards, SYR (F, 8900) – Still not crazy about the pricing here but he will have some rebounding upside, as well as some scoring upside potentially. Temple’s big man Reynolds recently gave the Red Storm 21 real points. We talked about Edwards’s crazy block stats in yesterday’s PrizePicks but worth noting, St John’s is ranked #2 in block % on offense, with only 1.7% of offensive possessions ending in a block, so don’t rely as much on defensive stats when considering Edwards. Also note, Chris Bell (F, 3500) played 34 mins at the 3 against Richmond. Coach Boeheim typically likes an extremely short bench so could be getting there with this team.
Oumar Ballo, ARIZ (F, 6800) – Play em all. Well, not Cedric Henderson, Jr. for $7500. But play everyone else from the Wildcats, especially in tourneys. I would normally be terrified of San Diego St.’s defense, but the Maui rims allow every shot to go in so just play them all. Azoulas Tubelis (F, 8600) has three 40 burgers on his resume already, so if you can afford him, play him. If not, Ballo is an excellent pivot for almost $2k less. And if you want to play them both, even better. Run free Bucketheads. Run free.
Nae’Qwan Tomlin, KSU (F, 6400) – Nevada has the #3 effective FG% defense on the young season and KSU is super balanced. Add in a middling over/under and it’s hard to get too excited here. Nowell (G, 8500) and Key Johnson (F, 8300) are definitely their best players, but Tomlin actually leads the team in shot share and has really solid offensive rebounding and block rates. I’m always finding $400 more for Ballo here, but if you are stuck in no man’s land salary wise or have a KSU boner, Tomlin is a potential GPP option coming off his best game of the season.
Jamille Reynolds, TEMP (F, 6100) – 5x/4x/5x/5x this price in his last 4. Terrific minutes, usage and shot rates for the Temple big man. Richmond is far from a dominant rebounding team, so we expect Reynolds to flirt with a double double tonight and continue his run of being around 30 DK.
Jaedon LeDee, SDSU (F, 5100) – With Arizona’s twin towers down low, the Aztecs may be force to play LeDee more than 20 minutes. He played 28 minutes against BYU and smashed. The former TCU forward has the pedigree and game to hit 5x, so he’s worth a look in tourneys. 6’10 big man Nathan Mensah (F, 5800) will also need to be at his best to match Ballo’s size and strength down low. Lamont Butler (G, 5900) has been a steady 4x cash game option as well. Lots of options here with an over/under in the mid-160s.
Makhel Mitchell, ARK (F, 4300) – Facing a true center in Kalkbrenner, the Razorbacks will need stout defense up front. This means they’ll rely on the Mitchell twins. Makhi (5400) is a little steadier, but Makhel had 32 DK last time out and seems to be firmly back in the rotation.
PrizePicks
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Tyler Burton
OVER 24.5 Pts+Rebs+Asts
He is playing max minutes and is a terrific rebounder. He has 14+ shot attempts in his last three game. Even if you don’t include his 38-6-4 game earlier this year he still averages 25 PRA.
– Joe
Oumar Ballo
OVER 7 Rebounds
Double digit boards in every game this season in a game projected for max possessions. The way we are running right now, you can count on two immediate fouls for Ballo, but assuming we aren’t actually cursed he should go OVER the rebound total here.
– Byrd
BUCKETHEAD BONUS
Posh Alexander
OVER 5.5 Assists
Not often do we roll out the assist category, but as we mentioned, this should be a high scoring game and due to the nature of the zone, Cuse gives up a ton of assists to opposing offenses. Alexander has had to give up some usage to Curbelo but has exceeded this in 3 of 5 games already this season.
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