Blue Bloods, Gavitt Games, and $10k on a Tuesday!

This is a great slate. Not just because we have an uncharacteristically high $10,000 going to first place, but because all 8 of the games look great! No spread is larger than 10 points as of this morning and 6 of the 8 games are slated to go over 140 points.

Now the pricing is what it is and DK algorithms are still working that out. That said, it is nice to see the stat lines within the DraftKings app now reflect the 2022-23 season and not last year’s numbers. This will balance the field some, but that is where we come in. Stats don’t always paint a true picture. We are going to dive in to each game and give you the plays we like. Not just the plays, but the rationale on why we like them. Typically that is stuff you can’t find in a game log. No need to ramble on anymore! Let’s get to it and win all the money, Bucketheads!

11/15/22

GameTimeLineO/U
NW @ GU5:30PK144
VAND @ TEMP6:00TEMP -4.5136
UK @ MSU 6:00UK -7141.5
UNM @ SMU7:00SMU -3151
MARQ @ PUR7:30PUR -9147.5
MEM @ STL8:00STL -2.5147
SDSU @ STAN8:00SDSU -5137
DUKE @ KU8:30KU -1.5144.5
BetUS Morning Lines

GUARDS WE LIKE

Kendric Davis, MEM (G, 8800) – This should be a fun game, as both teams have tourney aspirations this season. King Kendric was still working through an ankle issue in game 1, but had elite possession rates and played plenty of minutes. He’s one of the best guards in the nation and this one has a healthy over/under, so I’m ok paying up here if you have the salary. DeAndre Williams (F, 7300) will be the secondary scoring option for the Tigers, but if you are looking for a cheaper play, Malcolm Dandridge (F, 3800) started their only game of the year and finished with 19 DK points. He flashed at times last season, so not a bad dart throw.

Brandon Murray, GU (G, 8600) – The former LSU standout has gone 4x/5x in his first two games with the Hoyas at a 28% shot share. He and Spears (G, 7700) are getting a full load of minutes and should dominate the ball, so both are solid GPP options in what could be a close game. Murray should have a little higher floor however with a 30% assist rate and is a better shooter. Former Boston College and Arizona St SG Jay Heath (G, 6500) should make his debut tonight. He shot 43% from 3 and should be low-owned, so some GPP upside as well.

Jordan Wright, VAND (G, 8500) – Here is your classic bet on talent play. Wright (and Vandy) haven’t been good without Scotty Pippen Jr. on the team. Two games, two different starting lineups, and minutes more erratic more than a Ric Flair promo. The test doesn’t get easier with Temple either tonight. Consider Jordan in GPP only, but this could be a game where Wright looks like his slate breaking self from the last two years, as he and Vandy badly need a win.

Sahvir Wheeler, UK (G, 8200) – Wheeler made a flashy return racking up 11 points, 11 assists, and 6 rebounds against Duquesne. The addition of knockdown shooters Frederick (G, 4900) and Reeves (G, 6800) should open the middle of the court allowing Wheeler to get into the paint and find passing lanes or get to the cup. Cal may lean on Wheeler’s experience over Wallace (G, 7400). All three of the guards are playable at their respective prices, with Frederick being a better GPP play with his ability to get hot from 3 against a familiar opponent. 

Jaelen House, UNM (G, 7900) – I like House and Mashburn (G, 7300) a lot tonight. The Lobos have been playing with pace this year and this game has the highest OU on the slate (151). House has eclipsed 20 points and handed out 7 assists in both games this season. Mashburn can score it too, and provides a slight price break, but I prefer House of the two.

Darrion Trammell, SDSU (G, 6700) – Usually our Aztec content focuses on Matt Bradley only, but it’s a new year and our change adoption game is strong. Trammell is a walking bucket, averaging 19.5 ppg on the season after lighting it up for Seattle the last two years. I do think Bradley (G, 6800) is a bet on talent GPP option tonight, although the fact that he hasn’t hit a jump shot this year (only layups so far) is a bit concerning. Lamont Butler (G, 5200) has blossomed this year as well and he’s a thief defensively who should do well against a Stanford team that isn’t afraid to turn the ball over. Speaking of the Cardinal, if you are looking for Stanford plays, you’ve come to the wrong place Bucketheads!!

Khalif Battle, TEMP (G, 6200) – Damien Dunn (G, 8400) is a terrific all-around player, but for 2200 less you can get the team’s leading scorer. Battle has taken 15 or more shots and 8 or more threes in each game. While not a stat-stuffer (boards, assists, steals) like Dunn, Battle is the bucket getter and has 4x in every game this year.

Gibson Jimerson (G, 6100) – Last time your boys @cbb_dfs were at Chaifetz Arena, we watched Jordaire Jett and Rob Loe give undefeated Wichita St. and Fred Van Fleet/Ron Baker all they could handle. In a related note, we are old AF. As for tonight’s matchup in St. Louis, I really like Yuri Collins (G, 8300) as a player and he’s got top 5 assists rates nationally, but Memphis has the tools to be elite defensively so he’s probably more of a 4x play than a smashburger option Missouri transfer Javon Pickett (G, 6200) has been unreal on the boards through 2 games, but his rebounding rates were never like this previously so could be a small sample size outlier. Francis Okoro (F, 7200) is an elite rebounder, but has a very limited offensive game. That leaves Jimerson and Javonte Perkins (G/F, 6000), who are both 40% 3-point shooters. Vandy took 30 triples against Memphis in game 1, so if Perkins or Jimerson can get hot, they have a chance tonight. Perkins is very shot dependent, while Jimerson just enough ancillary things to give him a slight edge in safety.

Tyler Kolek, MARQ (G, 6000) – Kolek is the engine that makes this Golden Eagle team soar. Averaged 5x in first two games, largely getting it done with rebounds and assists. Purdue will want to slow this game down to allow their big man to get established, so Kolek will be relied upon to make plays. Kam Jones (G, 4500) is another guard option. Poor shooting last game, but he’ll get shots up and they’ll need his scoring.

Gradey Dick, KU (G, 5700) – Obviously Jalen Wilson (F, 10.1k) will lead the way for KU tonight, but with MJ Rice out sick, that should solidify Dick as the seconday scoring option for the Jayhawks. He’s been terrific to date and at this price point, he can definitely hit a 5x+ return on investment. Dajuan Harris Jr. (G, 5300) probably doesn’t have as much upside as Gradey, but with an o/u nearing 150 and fact that Harris will be on the court all game, he’s a solid cash option as well. If you are looking to get weird, Bobby Pettiford Jr. (G, 3900) will likely play 20 minutes off the bench and is averaging over 4x his price point. I also like Kevin McCullar over 3.5 rebounds on DK (+110) as the KU guards will need to crash the boards against Duke’s superior length.

Ty Berry, NW (G, 5300) – The Wildcats lost both their legacy big men to blue bloods in the off-season in Nance (UNC) and Young (Duke). Their backcourt and wings should look familiar however. Berry flashed at times last season but has turned into Northwestern’s most prolific shooter and best rebounder already in this short season. He’s only second in shot share (25%) behind Buie (G, 6900) at a much cheaper price. Georgetown giving up 45% of opponents’ scoring from 3 so Berry is a solid GPP play if he can get cooking. Overall, Wildcats are priced well, so can go with any of the starters in what should be a high-scoring game.

Brandon Newman, PURD (G, 4900) – The Boilermakers are top 40 in bench minutes right now. I do expect their roster to thin out over time, but until then, it’s bad business for DFS. Since the matchup is good and should be a ton of possessions, I’ll look at junior Newman who is getting a 30% shot share right now. The freshman Fletcher Loyer (G, 6300) is enticing (36% shot share), but against the frantic pace of the Golden Eagles, I’d prefer to lean towards experience.

Zhuric Phelps, SMU (G, 4800) – The sophomore saw limited playing time a year ago with Kendric Davis dominating the PG spot, now with Davis in Memphis, Phelps has exploded on to the scene playing 35 minutes in both games and scoring 28 points in the opener. New Mexico will want to push pace in this matchup, a good thing for opposing point guards. I like Phelps in all formats tonight.

Jaden Akins, MSU (G, 3700) – Izzo has been pleased with what he’s seen from his rising sophomore guard. So much so, he publicly promised more playing time starting tonight. Stat-wise, Akins doesn’t have a lot to draw from, but he is leading the team in shot share (35%) and is a plus defender, so a higher minute share could become immediately fruitful from a DFS standpoint.

FORWARDS WE LIKE

Oscar Tshiebwe, UK (F, 9500) – Sounding like he might play, but as always, keep an eye on the injury reports closer to game time. If so, this feels like a decent price given the recent inflation we’ve seen so far and what he is capable of as a player. While Sissoko had an admirable defensive performance against Timme over the weekend, Tshiebwe is really another animal and possibly the best rebounder we’ve seen at the college level in a generation. If he’s out, you can look at freshman Onyenso (F, 3900) as a GPP flier. 6x/5x against cupcakes but seems more effective than Ware (F, 3500). You can also look at Jacob Toppin (F, 6700) in cash games.

Zach Edey, PUR (F, 9300) – Interesting matchup for the big man, will Shaka’s squad be able to wear down Edey by pushing the pace? In games against similarly paced, North Carolina and Iowa last season, Edey struggled to hang, only scoring 6 points (both Iowa games) and 9 vs UNC. Edey played a career-high 31 minutes against Appalachian St which is extremely promising. He netted 30 points and 11 rebounds in that time on 32% usage, so a bit of a gamble for what will likely be a higher-owned elite tier player.

Dereck Lively II, DUKE (F, 7000) – This might be dumb, as Lively has only played 15 minutes of college basketball, but KU has no one that can match up with a 7’1 elite athlete like him. Alphas like Lively generally shine brightest on the big stage and it doesn’t get bigger than this, at least for November basketball. Now, he could also get into quick foul trouble or the calf could flare up and he completely destroys your lineup, but he’s an intriguing GPP option given his pedigree and 5-inch height advantage over the KU forwards. If Lively does play more minutes, that really hurts NW transfer Ryan Young (F, 4700). Filipowski (F, 8000) is averaging a double double and Mitchell (F, 6700) has been fantastic, so I think they are viable options as well. Finally, Jeremy Roach (G, 8100) will probably have to play all the minutes tonight so he’ll probably land in the 30 DK range, but I’m not sure he has GPP winning upside at this price point.

Morris Udeze, UNM (F, 6300) – It’s no shocker (pun) that the former Wichita State big has started fast for New Mexico. Udeze has always been an excellent floor runner and defensive minded grinder in the paint. What’s new thus far is the 26% usage and 29% shot rate through two games. Both career highs by a mile, so hopefully it continues tonight. If so he is a full go in cash and GPP lineups.

Malik Hall, MSU (F, 5700) – Not sure I really trust anyone on the Spartans roster if I’m being honest. For cash games anyway, Hall seems like the safest bet. The senior wing can fill up the stat line and presents a mismatch in the post. I expect Kentucky to be a much more difficult matchup defensively than Gonzaga so when they need a bucket, they will likely lean on their veterans. Sissoko (F, 4000) is tempting at that price. I didn’t expect him to play as well as he did against Timme, so he’s an option, especially if Oscar is out again.

Samuell Williamson, SMU (F, 5600) – The highly touted Louisville player jumped that sinking ship and found a new home in Dallas this year. While never reaching his potential for the Cardinals, Williamson has flourished in 2-games for SMU scoring 33.3 and 28.3 DK. Tonight in a paced-up matchup I like Williamson a lot. He’s playing max minutes and should flirt with another double-double.

Olivier-Maxence Prosper, MARQ (F, 4800) – Prosper averages the highest minute share on the team (74%) and has gone 5x/6x in his first two games. Extremely difficult matchup against Purdue’s front court, but he’s playing well and can do some things defensively which should help keep his floor high. Looking further down the depth chart, you can look at David Joplin (F, 3800). He’s playing close to 20 minutes with a 29% shot share, going 8x last game.

KJ Adams, KU (F, 4500) – With Clemence out tonight, I think Roberts will lean on Adams experience and athleticism to help KU survive down low. He doesn’t have the offensive game to smash the slate, but he’s cheap and should play 25 minutes. They’ll be severely undersized in the front court, so you could see more minutes from Earnest Udeh Jr. (F, 4200) as well, but I’m not quite sure Udeh is ready for this type of smoke in game 3 of his freshman season.

Jamille Reynolds, TEMP (F, 4400) – Battled foul trouble in the opener, but then was outstanding against Nova last time out. We’ll see if foul trouble will be an issue for the 6-11, 280-pound sophomore, but at 4400 he makes for an excellent GPP play with an extremely high ceiling. 

Jaedon LeDee, SDSU (F, 4300) – After dropping 23 points and 6 boards on BYU, I’m guessing LeDee will be a popular punt option tonight. He never quite lived up to expectations at TCU, but he’s rolling with a 37% shot share playing a little over half the minutes for the Aztecs, so he warrants strong consideration in all formats tonight.

Collin Smith, VAND (F, 4000) – Played 27 minutes and went 6x last game, but the Commodores are far from having a stable rotation place. That said, I feel the freshman forward has earned another 25 minutes and has proven to be productive when on the floor through two games (35 DK points in 39 minutes).  

PrizePicks

We have our PricePicks listed below for your consumption! If you are new to the game, don’t forget to use promo code CBBDFS for 100% deposit bonus. It helps us out a ton for notoriety and is a nice way to send some love!

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Qudus Wahab

OVER 6.0 rebounds

Qudus has has been over this number both games and averaged 8.2 rpg his last full season at Georgetown. Hard to imagine him coming in under 6, but you never know. I am pretty confident he gets home.

– Joe

Kevin McCullar

OVER 20.4 Fantasy Score

McCullar is a true stat-stuffer, but more importantly he can create steals and block shots from the wing. With PrizePicks scoring, blocks and steals are the key to hitting overs on fantasy score. Against a bunch of freshman, I like the seniors chances to go OVER 20.4 fantasy score tonight.

– Byrd

BUCKETHEAD BONUS

Adama Sanogo

OVER 26.5 Pts+Rebs+Asts

Sanogo is the #8 ranked player on KenPom in this young season with a massive 37% shot share and 36% Defensive Rebound rate. No team in the country is playing faster than Buffalo, so should be loads of opportunities for Sanogo to dominate the paint. 27 points and 15 rebounds in his last outing…

BUCKETHEAD PLAY OF THE DAY

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