Lets not dilly dally with a long intro. This is what CBB DFS is supposed to feel like. We have a 9-game slate that has 8/18 teams ranked in the top 25 going head to head in crucial early season conference match-ups. One of our Bucketheads is going to win $2,000 tonight and we want it to be you.
Below we have broken down the slate! The last four in the ladder are applicable top the night slate and UK vs UGA is available as a showdown.
Enough already! #LFG!!
#11 Ohio State @ #12 Maryland
Despite dropping 2 of their last 4, Maryland is still undefeated at home this year. The Buckeyes look to pick up a rare and valuable road win and get back in the winning column after losing their last 2.
Both of these teams are top 15 in defensive efficiency and play at below average tempo. The Terrapins have a slight advantage on the offensive boards. The Buckeyes are an elite 3-point shooting team at close to 40% as a team. Maryland allows opponents to get 36.4% of their points from 3, so an advantage there for Ohio St.
Jalen Smith (F, 8300) is priced down $200 but is still overpriced for recent form and matchup. He’s failed to hit 4x last 3 games. While a 4x floor is certainly realistic, he’s a moderately risky cash play and GPP pass. Anthony Cowan (G, 7800) has missed 4x in 3 of last 4 as well but hit 4x in both of the Ohio St games last season at that price. He’s oddly 6 DK worse at home this season, but the ball will be in his hands all game.
Aaron Wiggins (G, 6100) is averaging 4x across last 4 games. His floor is his ceiling so only consider for cash games. Chol Marial (F, 4300) seemed likely to pick up a majority of the Mitchell twins’ minutes but only managed 8 against IU as he’s still adjusting. I think he’s still the mostly likely recipient, but a bit of a gamble right now. Joshoa Tomaic (F, 3000) got 23 minutes but only managed 1 rebound.
In 3 road games this season, Kaleb Wesson (F, 8100) has only averaged 23 DK. In addition, 7 of his last 10 games, he’s failed to reach 30 DK. With the pace and matchup, I’ll be looking elsewhere.
As with most freshman, DJ Carton (G, 5400) has hit a bit of a wall lately with a combined 13 DK in last 2 games. He does play better on the road, but you can find better options at that price. Duane Washington Jr(G, 5300) is always a gamble but matchup is favorable. He has a 28.5% shot share and shooting 47.5% from 3, but it took him 19 shots in 34 minutes to hit 4x against Wisconsin which isn’t ideal. He had 27 DK at College Park last year, moderate risk GPP tonight.
#20 Penn State @ Rutgers
In spite of these teams being top 40 defensively, expect an up-tempo affair with both teams averaging around 16 seconds a possession on offense. Neither team is particularly good from the outside, with Rutgers being the worst offender at 28.9% shooting and 21% of their points coming from 3. No real advantage on the boards for either team. While both teams excel at creating turnovers, Rutgers has a trouble taking care of the ball with a 20.5% turnover rate. That could mean more steals and blocks for the Nittany Lions.
Lamar Stevens (F, 8300) has had a couple 3x games in last 4. Minutes are down slightly (23 mpg) with foul trouble which is concerning. If he can get over 30 minutes, should be an easy 4x, so that’s the primary risk for cash play. He’s always in play for GPP with a 54 DK game just 3 weeks ago.
Mike Watkins (F, 7600) made a dream matchup into a nightmare with foul trouble against Iowa. He’s priced down slightly and can get to 4x with rebounds and blocks but will need to score to go beyond that, risky GPP play. Hot shooting Myreon Jones (G, 7100) hit a cold snap against Iowa (10 DK). Matchup is worse tonight even though pace is favorable. You can play Jones in GPP or Myles Dread (G, 5000) who had 31 DK against Iowa. Both are darts. Izaiah Brockington (G, 4600) was my value play over the weekend and hit for 6.5x. He’s shot dependent but better value than the latter 2 guards right now.
Myles Johnson (F, 6800) is on a heater lately averaging 13 boards in last 4 games. He’s priced up $300 since his last slate but still a great value, especially in GPP where there is a pretty direct correlation between minutes and fantasy points but some foul risk.
Ron Harper (G/F, 6400) I really liked against Nebraska, even before the Geo injury was announced. He didn’t disappoint with 11 and 10 (37 DK). He should be heavily considered in all formats tonight as should Caleb McConnell (G, 4600) who started for Geo. He went off for 7.5x and should be a safe bet tonight as well.
Not a great matchup for Akwasi Yeboah (F, 4900) who’s been struggling over the last 3 games. The talented Jacob Young (G, 4400) has emerged the last two games (9x/6x). Still a gamble in a tough game but the significant minute boost is a good sign. Boom/bust GPP play until Geo returns.
Providence @ Marquette
Marquette is an -8 point favorite in this game fresh off a throttling of Big East big dog Villanova this weekend. Providence has started league play a surprising 2-0 after a lack luster non-conference schedule where they went 7-6. The over under sits at a DFS friendly 145.5 so lets get right to it!
This game in in Milwaukee and the first that you should know is Markus Howard (G, 8600) kills at home. We mentioned this on our Podcast last Saturday before he dropped 29 real points on the Wildcats. At home Howard averages 40.3 fppg, as opposed to 25.5 on the road. Play the price king tonight if you can, as he is pretty match-up proof.
After Howard Sacar Anim (G/F, 6200) feels over priced. He’s a grinder player, but isn’t reliable enough offensively to merit the price. Next on the team list, Brendan Bailey (F, 5600) and Koby McEwen (G, 5600) have the same price tag. Bailey’s priced up a little high due to a few outlier rebounding efforts that I don’t think he repeats. McEwen on the other hand I really like. He his best game in a while the last time out and the shooter can be a streaky player.
Finally, I will note that Theo John (F, 4500) played 33 minutes against Nova and responded with a great game down low. The time on the floor is definitely not the norm for him as John averages only around 19 minutes per game.
For Providence, Alpha Diallo (G, 8400) had a string of 4-straight 40-burgers come to an end last game against DePaul. He should return to 4x form tonight as he typically offers a very safe floor.
The same can NOT be said for David Duke (G, 7100) and Luwane Pipkins (G, 6300). The point and off guards are either good or bad with little in between. Play either at your own risk.
I will recommend a big for Providence. Nate Watson (F, 5300) continues to see his price slowly increase. Dude averaged 14 and 7 last year, and I contend he will end up being a 7000 player by February so enjoy the value now.
Don’t fall into the Emmitt Holt (F, 4300) trap DK algorithms are setting for us. He has seen good minutes and production in his last 3 games, but that is clearly due to opportunity created by foul trouble. Notably Kalif Young (F, 4200) who has more fouls in his last three games (14) that points, assists, blocks and steals combined (12).
Florida @ South Carolina
We like it when Florida gets paced up, and tonight the play against a team that is top 50 in tempo as South Carolina will host the Gators in Columbia. UF is a -5 point favorite and the over-under is 136.
This will be Florida’s 3rd consecutive game against a team that plays fast. The hit 102 against Long Beach State and 104 on Saturday against Alabama (with the assistance of 2 OTs).
In both games big man Kerry Blackshear (F, 8000) was a star. He has gone 6x, 4x and 5x in his last three, so feel free to plug him in tonight. Fellow forward Keyontae Johnson (6600) was good in the last two as well with 35 and 32 DK in the paced up games.
The guards give me a little paws when considering them for a line up.
Andrew Nembhard (G, 6300) is a little pricey for my taste given the other options on the slate. I prefer Scottie Lewis (G, 5400) for his consistency. Noah Locke (G, 5300) is in good shooting form so he is playable despite the season high price point. Locke will need to be locked in from three though.
This will be the SEC opener for the Gamecocks who closed out 2019 in unique fashion. On 12/22 they went in to Charlottesville and knocked off the defending national champion Virgina team on their home floor. Eight days later on 12/30 they lost at home to KenPom’s 320th rated Stetson Hatters.
Guard AJ Lawson (6600) is typically the play you want from South Carolina. I am still trying to find out why he only played 13 minutes in the Stetson game (loss) and 19 minutes against Houston (loss) after his normal 30 minute showings in wins over Virginia, UMass and Clemson. I’ll keep digging up until tip.
After AJ, Jermaine Couisnard (G, 5100) is second on the team in usage and shot % and he hasn’t practice all week with a back issue, so we’ll monitor that too. If the 6th man misses that will mean an extended run for Jair Bolden (G, 5600) and the returning Keyshawn Bryant (F, 4300). Bryant has played the last 5 games after missing the entire start of the season with a knee issue. He started 26/32 games last year.
Putting a bow on South Carolina, Justin Minaya (F, 5900) and Maik Kotsar (F, 6400) will do most of the work down low for the Gamecocks, but neither generate enticement from a DFS perspective. Between the two them can you guess how many double double they have combined for?
Miami @ #13 Louisville
Even though it seems like we just started conference play, this is the second times these 2 teams face off this season after they opened the season at Miami; Louisville grabbing the 87-74 win. Miami followed up a 5 game win streak with a complete drubbing at Cameron. Meanwhile Louisville has dropped their last 2.
Louisville is a top 15 defensive team, so Miami will be downgraded overall as they should only get into the low 60s in scoring. The Cardinals should have an advantage on the boards and out-rebounded Miami 40-35 last game. Miami can shoot the 3-ball (38%) but ranked #341 at A/FGM so ball-hoggery in full effect. Expect Louisville to do most of their damage inside the arc.
Jordan Nwora (F, 8200) had 23 and 12 the first game and coming off 5x in a tough matchup against FSU. He should be highly owned in all formats. Dwayne Sutton (F, 6400) should get up more than the 4 shots he attempted vs FSU. He got 4x last time and playing consistent of late, so should have a nice floor for cash games.
Steven Enoch (F, 5900) is all over the place. Matchup is favorable tonight, rebounding should give him a nice floor with upside if he decides to score; DD last time. You can also pivot down to Malik Williams (F, 5100) to save a few bucks in GPP. Ryan McMahon (G, 4400) has been in a shooting slump lately but great matchup for him get out of it; 16 points last time. Freshman David Johnson (G, 3600) got 16.5 DK in 19 minutes against FSU. Other than UK game, seems to be getting more minutes so cheap dart with upside if that trend continues.
Even with the terrible matchup, Kameron McGusty (G, 6500) and Chris Lykes (G, 6400) are both playing max minutes, usage, and shot share. You can’t play both, but you can play one in GPP and hope for fireworks.
Sam Waardenberg (F, 5500) has emerged this season and his price now reflects that. He’s playable in cash, but ceiling too low for GPP. Dejan Vasiljevic (G, 6000) is always capable of going off from deep but he’s a dart throw tonight.
#16 Villanova @ Creighton
Nova will head to Omaha for their second consecutive road game to open Big East play. The first attempt didn’t go well, as Marquette held them to 60 points. Creighton isn’t as good defensively, but they are a tough matchup for any time with their guard oriented attack. This should be a fun one from a DFS perspective with two highly efficient offenses.
It’s been tough sledding for highly touted freshmen Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (F, 7600) of late. He hasn’t exceeded 25 DK points in 5 straight and his offensive usage is less than 20%. Saddiq Bey (F, 7200) has a similar game log, not exceeding 25 DK in 4-straight. Foul troubled plagued Bey against Marquette, but I could see a bit of a bounce back tonight and prefer him over JRE at the $400 discount.
Collin Gillespie (G, 7000) has been the heartbeat for Nova this year, leading the team in usage and assist rate. In a pace up game, he should have a solid chance at hitting value. Jermaine Samuels (F, 5900) is still sitting under $6k in price and this game profiles well for the 6’7 SF, as he can match up against the smaller BlueJays. He failed us on Saturday as a cash game option, but I’m going right back to the well tonight. Justin Moore (G, 5300) is a nice cheap option to get exposure to a nice over/under here. Bryan Antoine (G, 3200)has not threatened minutes to date and Moore continues to produce.
I’d expect all 17,352 seats to be filled tonight for a big home game against perennial power Nova and no reason to think the Jays won’t score 75+ points tonight. It all starts with Marcus Zegarowski (G, 8200) and Ty-Shon Alexander(G, 7700). Both play max minutes and have mid 20s usage. Zegs has a strong assist rate while Alexander is a good rebounder for a guard and has a bit more ancillary stat upside. Both are elite shooters and fully in play tonight at home.
Mitch Ballock (G, 7300) will also play max minutes and fills up the stat sheet. He’s more of a GPP option, but had 40 DK his last home game against Marquette, so the upside is there. DFS darling Denzel Mahoney (G/F, 5600) has come back to life recently with 17 and 7 DK points his last two, including declining minutes.
Mahoney and Christian Bishop (F, 5500) are both fades for me, as their too volatile for my liking. If I’m taking a GPP stab at someone else here, it would probably be Damien Jefferson (F, 5000). His minutes have increased recently and he has a 5x/6x in 2 of his last 3. Overall, this is a really fun game that we certainly want some exposure too.
#14 Kentucky @ Georgia
All signs point to Georgia native Ashton Hagans (G, 8200) playing tonight for Kentucky as they travel to Athens to take on the Bulldogs.
Vegas has made Kentucky a slight -3.5 point favorite and the over under sits at a playable 142. This game is also available as a showdown option so I’ll be sure to go above and beyond just the core plays.
Starting with Kentucky, Hagans has been on a tear. Prior to the minor ankle issue last game, he has had 9 straight games at 4x his current price. Re-agrivation is always a concern, but the game flow and UGA D should not be.
Kentucky will be paced up quite a bit in this one. So give a bump to all their guards. I really like Tyrese Maxey (6300) and Immanuel Quickley (5900). Slight lean to Maxey for his shooting ability.
At forward Nick Richards (F, 7500) has back to back double-doubles but has also recorded 5, 4, 4, 4, and 4 fouls in his last 5 games so consider that risk. EJ Montgomery (F, 5500) is who he is by now, I prefer Nate Sestina (F, 5200) who has games of 27 and 32 minutes in 2/3 while getting back into game shape.
The always troubling SF spot for Kentucky remains something to avoid. Keion Brooks Jr. (F, 4200) and Kahlil Whitney (F, 3800) just haven’t lived up to the pre-season hype.
Speaking of preseason hype… Anthony Edwards (G, 8100) has led the Georgia Bulldogs to a 10-3 non-conference mark with losses only to Arizona State (away), #8 Michigan State, and #15 Dayton (neutral).
From a DFS perspective Antman has been underwhelming, but there is no denying the multiple ways he can impact a game. Edwards best game came again Sparty (62.5 DK) on 11/26 but was under 4x four times in December.
Rayshawn Hammonds (F, 7700) is a double double candidate and is UGA’s clear #2 option. He is a nice contrarian option to the similarly priced and more popular Edwards, Richards and Hagans.
After him it is anyone’s guess who steps up for UGA. I always consider Tyree Crump (G, 4300) because of his price and love for shooting 3s. Donnell Gresham Jr. (G, 5100) is a do it all type player, great for your Showdown slate, but has limited upside. Sahvir Wheeler (G, 4900) has a top 30 assist rate, but doesn’t score enough to be dangerous.
Finally lets call out Toumani Camara (F, 5100) and Jordan Harris (G, 4700). Camara many of you know, and have been playing these past two weeks, but he is now priced up a $1000 making him “just a guy” at this price point. Harris will be playing in his 5th game since his suspension was lifted, but really hasn’t done much with his opportunities to reinsert himself as a regular in the rotation. He was a good player last year too.
#4 Baylor @ #22 Texas Tech
Baylor currently has the 9th best defense in adjusted efficiency per Kenpom, while Texas Tech is finally healthy and sitting at 13th in adjusted defense. That’s a good equation for an over under of 130, which means we certainly don’t want to go overboard here.
Tech just held Oklahoma State to 50 points at home and held Louisville to 57 on a neutral site, so this is sub-optimal for the Bears. I don’t feel good about any of these options, especially paying up for Jared Butler (G, 7400), Freddie Gillespie (F, 7300), or MaCio Teague (G, 6900). It’s a sad world when Tristan Clark (F, $3900) is not even playable. Look elsewhere Bucketheads!!
As mentioned above, Texas Tech is healthy and starting to believe. They throttled Ok St to begin Big 12 play and I think they’ll win tonight. Jahmi’us Ramsey (G, 7900) basically scores 30 DK points every time he’s healthy, so he’s in play at home, but Baylor is a tough defense so I don’t see much ceiling. Chris Clarke (F, 7500) doesn’t start, but he plays starter minutes and can absolutely load up a box score. He’s ability to put up DK points in a variety of ways gives him a high floor.
Kyler Edwards (F, 6900) is overpriced and Davide Moretti (G, 5900) is a good player in real life, but offers no ceiling at all. TJ Holyfield (F, 5800) is playing really well lately, with at least 25 DK in 3 straight. He’s not a must play by any means, but I prefer him to Edwards and Moretti. Terrence Shannon, Jr. (G, 5700) has seen a reduction in minutes recently, which is too bad because he’s a fun player. Overall, there are better games to get exposure to than both of the Big 12 games, so unless you are looking for some contrarian plays, this conference isn’t for you tonight.
TCU @ Kansas State
The Horned Frogs bring their 250th tempo and top 40 defense to face the Wildcats 255th tempo and top 40 defense. Both teams like to shoot the 3, but overall, if you are looking for late night DFS heat, you’ve come to the wrong place.
With no downward price adjustments, I can’t recommend any TCU plays on the road as they just don’t have any ceiling at all. Desmond Bane is awesome, but no way am I paying $8500 for him. In an ugly, physical game maybe you can play Kevin Samuel (F, 7800), who has 4x in 6 of his last 7? Overall, just too much risk for me. Best of luck here and may God have mercy on your soul.
Things aren’t much better on the KSU side of things, but Cartier Diarra (G, 7900) and Xavier Sneed (F, 7300) are the primary factors on the offensive end. Diarra has strong usage and a top 10 assist rate and fills up the ancillary stats. Sneed is on a heat-check with 40 points, 12 boards, and at least 15 shot attempts over his last 2 games. Overall, I’m looking elsewhere for my DFS goodness, but Sneed and Diarra are viable plays.